The AI cloud company beat revenue estimates, but trimmed its 2026 outlook to the low end, delayed some capacity to next year and raised spending to about $27 billion. On a day Nvidia lost its CEO, investors didn't wait for the fine print.
By Methodical Jon | Nov 12, 2026
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) shares sank on Thursday, November 12th 2026, after the Amsterdam-based AI cloud company said 2026 revenue will land at the low end of its $3.0 to $3.4 billion USD range and raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to about $27 billion USD, according to its letter to shareholders. The stock fell 16% earlier in the session, per CNBC and Reuters, and was down about 17% just before noon ET.
The quarter itself was strong. The outlook was not what a nervous market wanted to hear.
What happened
The headline numbers from Nebius's earnings release and shareholder letter:
- Q3 revenue of $980.8 million USD, up 571% from $146.1 million USD a year earlier and above the $907.5 million USD analysts expected, per CNBC, citing LSEG.
- A net loss from continuing operations of $37.5 million USD, narrower than the $119.6 million USD loss a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million USD.
- 2026 capex of about $27 billion USD, up from a prior range of $20 to $25 billion USD. CNBC said FactSet expected $23.85 billion USD.
- 2027 capex of $40 to $45 billion USD, well above the $28.77 billion USD FactSet estimate CNBC cited.
- An initial 2027 revenue outlook of $12 to $13 billion USD, which the company called "a conservative approach to the pace of our build-out," and a target of pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027.
The reason for the trim: some third-party capacity Nebius expected online this year has slipped to the first half of 2027, including a New Jersey site that is moving to Bloom Energy fuel cells for power. The contracts behind that capacity remain in place, the company said. It also pushed its annualized run-rate revenue target back about two months: it had guided to $7 to $9 billion USD by December and now expects more than $7 billion USD for February.
"Delays are part of our industry right now. We are not immune...none of that capacity is canceled, some of it has shifted to 2027," CEO Arkady Volozh said, per Reuters.
Context: a rough week for neoclouds
Nebius rents out GPU computing power to AI labs and big tech companies, a group the industry calls "neoclouds." It reported a day after rival CoreWeave lifted its outlook and sparked a relief rally. That rally faded fast. CoreWeave fell about 10% on Thursday, NBC News reported, as Nvidia shares slid after Jensen Huang resigned as CEO.
The two stories are linked. Reuters noted that Nvidia is heavily involved in financing both Nebius and CoreWeave, and analysts have warned that trouble at Nvidia could ripple through the neocloud group. Nebius had already lost more than a third of its value in October amid worries about how these companies will fund their buildouts.
Why it matters
The real debate is financing, and Nebius came prepared. It said prepayments on deals signed in Q3 covered more than 100% of the associated capex, up from 50% to 60% in Q2. It expects $10 billion USD in customer prepayments this year, rising to $17 to $20 billion USD in 2027. Together with asset-backed loans against contracts with investment-grade customers such as Microsoft and Meta, it expects to cover 75% to 85% of its 2027 capex.
"We have no doubt that this capacity will be sold," CFO Dado Alonso told Reuters.
Demand looks real: customers committed more than $12 billion USD in contract value since the start of Q3, per the letter. But when a company asks investors to fund $40 billion USD of spending against $12 billion USD of revenue, any slip in timing gets punished.
The money lesson
1. Timing is a number too. Nothing was cancelled, but revenue moved from 2026 into 2027. For a stock priced on growth, a delay can hurt almost as much as a miss.
2. Capex is a promise to shareholders. Spending ahead of demand only works if the capacity comes online on schedule. Nebius's own sites are on time; the third-party ones are not. Control over execution is worth paying for.
3. Customer money beats borrowed money. Prepayments covering more than 100% of capex is the strongest line in the report. It's the same lesson CoreWeave taught this week: get customers to fund the build.
4. Context moves prices. A beat on a calm day can rally. The same beat on the day Nvidia loses its CEO gets sold. Size positions for the market you're in, not the one you want.
How a company deploys the money it raises decides who wins. That's the core of Episode 33 - Capital Allocation, where Kal compares well-funded Formula 1 teams to smaller ones and Methodical Jon calls money "an accelerant." Nebius is betting $27 billion USD this year that bigger budgets win the AI race.
What to watch
- Nvidia earnings on Nov. 17. The first report without Huang as CEO is the next big test for every AI infrastructure stock.
- New Jersey ramp. Watch for updates on when Nebius's delayed third-party capacity comes online.
- Funding moves. Any new debt or equity raise will show whether the prepayment model is enough.
- Contracted power. Nebius still expects 5 GW of contracted power by year-end, from more than 4 GW today.
At the time of writing (about 11:55 AM ET on Nov 12, 2026), Nebius shares were trading around $128.36 USD, down about 17% from Wednesday's $154.69 USD close, based on Yahoo Finance data. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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Sources:
- Nebius Group, "Letter to Shareholders Q3 2026" (Nov 12, 2026): https://assets.nebius.com/assets/65994da2-e220-40cd-bb5d-72e9654a237d/SHL.pdf
- Nebius Group via Business Wire, "Nebius reports third quarter 2026 financial results" (Nov 12, 2026): https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261112208769/en/Nebius-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results
- CNBC, "Nebius Q3 earnings report 2026" (Nov 12, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/nebius-q3-earnings-report-2026.html
- Reuters via CNA, "Nebius pares back 2026 revenue forecast on capacity delays, shares slump" (Nov 12, 2026): https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/nebius-pares-back-2026-revenue-forecast-capacity-delays-shares-slump-6546161
- NBC News, "Nvidia stock falls after Jensen Huang resigns" (Nov 12, 2026): https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/nvidia-stock-huang-resigns-rcna608958
- Yahoo Finance, NBIS quote (accessed Nov 12, 2026, 11:55 AM ET): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBIS/
This article may be AI-assisted and is subject to errors and omissions.