Anthropic’s $64 Billion IPO Draws About Six Times the Orders, Outpacing SpaceX’s Early Roadshow

AI
Written by Methodical Millions
Colourful editorial illustration of a glowing orange AI brain on a podium as a flood of golden coins and order tickets pours in, with a neon green chart rising and a small rocket in the background

Orders for Anthropic's record-sized IPO tripled in two days, but the investors lining up are still arguing over what the company will be worth in 2028.

By Methodical Jon | Nov 14, 2026

Anthropic's (proposed Nasdaq: ANT) initial public offering has drawn about six times the orders for the shares available, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, November 12th 2026, citing people familiar with the deal. Reuters, citing a separate source, said the book hit six times by the end of Thursday. That's a faster start than SpaceX's record listing, according to Reuters.

The Claude maker is trying to raise up to $64.4 billion USD in the IPO, plus $26 billion USD from a private placement, which would make it the biggest listing of all time.

What happened

The order book is building quickly. The IPO drew about two times the shares on offer by the end of Tuesday, the first day of the roadshow, and about six times by the end of Thursday, Reuters reported on Friday evening. For comparison, SpaceX's IPO was about two times oversubscribed after its second day of marketing.

Bankers told Reuters that a single-digit multiple is modest for a hot IPO, but impressive for a deal this big, and they expect the book to keep growing. Bloomberg reported that Anthropic has told prospective investors it will prioritize existing backers, so some buyers will get smaller allocations than they asked for. Anthropic declined to comment to Reuters.

The terms haven't changed. Anthropic's latest registration statement, an amended S-1 filed November 10th, still sets a range of $70 to $78 USD a share for 825 million shares. Its newsroom shows no update since the roadshow launch. The company's IPO website, filed with the SEC, says the final price is expected on Wednesday, November 18th, with trading set to start Thursday, November 19th, subject to regulatory clearance.

We covered the original terms when Anthropic set its price range on Tuesday.

Amodei: "Underpromise and overdeliver"

CEO Dario Amodei pitched the deal on Friday in a livestreamed conversation with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon at the bank's Manhattan headquarters, Yahoo Finance reported.

Amodei called buying enough computing power without overspending the company's "deepest business dilemma." He said Anthropic commits to infrastructure before it knows how much demand will show up, and that "we actually tend to buy on the low side." The IPO cash gives it more of a buffer. He also said the company wants to "underpromise and overdeliver," rather than chase the highest possible valuation.

That valuation is about $1.4 trillion USD on a fully diluted basis, per Bloomberg. Yahoo Finance noted that investors had expected as much as $2 trillion USD just weeks ago.

The debate: 2028

Demand is strong, but buyers don't agree on the numbers. According to Reuters:

  • Banks are modeling 2028 revenue of about $270 billion to $280 billion USD, and applying revenue multiples to that.
  • Some sell-side forecasts put 2026 revenue at $52 billion to $53 billion USD, rising to $135 billion to $137 billion USD in 2027. Some buy-side models run 10% to 15% higher.
  • One investor who passed on the deal is about 30% below the sell-side estimate for 2028.
  • The big questions are whether Anthropic can stay ahead as Google catches up, and whether Claude can win beyond coding with knowledge workers more broadly.

Some investors also told Reuters they didn't get detailed answers to their questions, and one group meeting had no dial-in line for institutions, which is unusual.

For a sense of the growth they're betting on, Anthropic's IPO factsheet shows $17.0 billion USD in third-quarter revenue, and Bloomberg reported its revenue run rate hit $81 billion USD as of October 31st, up $10 billion USD in a month.

Why it matters

This deal is a referendum on AI at a shaky moment. Nvidia, which plans to buy about $10 billion USD of Anthropic stock in the private placement, lost its CEO this week, and chip stocks fell hard on Friday.

The IPO may be pulling money from other assets too. Bitcoin slipped below $68,000 USD early Saturday, and Investing.com reported speculation that investors are selling liquid holdings to fund their allocations. Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca blamed part of the drop on money moving toward Anthropic. That link is a theory, not proven.

The money lesson

1. Oversubscribed doesn't mean underpriced. Six times the orders tells you about demand at $70 to $78 USD. It says nothing about whether the stock is worth that in 2028.

2. Watch the forecast, not the hype. A 30% gap between bulls and skeptics on one year's revenue is a huge spread. That gap is where IPO buyers make or lose money.

3. Allocation is a privilege. Existing backers get served first. Retail buyers who ask for shares may get few or none, and the company's own IPO site says there's no guarantee of any allocation.

From the Methodical Millions archive

In Episode 40 - Doordash vs Airbnb, we talked about how the valuations of two hot 2020 IPOs kept rising into their debuts and then jumped well above the offer price on day one. That's the same setup investors are betting on with Anthropic next week.

What to watch

  • A higher range. If demand keeps building, Anthropic could lift its $70 to $78 USD range before Wednesday. That would show up in a new SEC filing.
  • Nvidia earnings Tuesday after the bell, its first report since Jensen Huang's exit.
  • Pricing Wednesday, trading Thursday. The first-day move will show how public investors value frontier AI.

At the time of writing (about 7:00 AM ET on Nov 14, 2026), Anthropic shares are not yet trading. The latest filed range is $70 to $78 USD a share. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

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Sources:

This article may be AI-assisted and is subject to errors and omissions.

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